Weekly Update 03/07/2026

Show your support by liking and restacking this substack to continue free substacks and discord access. Your engagement = my motivation to keep cooking.

Good Morning.

Jesse Livermore blew up his account three times before he figured out that patience during the quiet periods is what actually funds the big trades. Mark Douglas spent his whole career yelling into a microphone that it’s not the market that kills you, it’s the six inches between your ears. I think about both of them every time we enter a week like this one. Last week was really good for us, even though majority of fintwit was in shambles, our performance was as below. This trade recap is based on 1 lot sizing only:

We’ve got range expansions across every major index, VX threatening to wake up and choose violence, and somewhere out there a retail trader is refreshing his portfolio app like it owes him money. The tape is talking. It is not being polite about it. The only question worth asking right now is whether you’re the operator who prepared for this or the person who is about to learn a very expensive lesson about position sizing. Let’s get into it.

ES

Weekly Expected Range: 6903 - 6576

ES is showing an expanded range this week and that tells you one thing. Whichever side it breaks toward, the move is going to have some serious weight behind it. No polite little chop. A real move. I’m looking for ES to make its way toward the 6661 level at some point this week. On the big picture, I want to see early week upside that functions as a gift wrapped bull trap for anyone who wasn’t paying attention last week. Once that trap closes, we should see a clean leg down into the 66XX area by Wednesday. After that expect a bounce back toward 6778 to 6780 heading into Friday, which will have the effect of closing the week essentially flat and making everyone question every decision they’ve ever made. I’m personally eyeing the short trade and may enter Sunday Globex. Long term view hasn’t changed. I think we test 6470 area into late March and early April, followed by a fresh ATH around 7220 by June.

The custom dip buy algorithm hasn’t fired yet. That thing is picky. It only shows up for real historical bottoms, your COVID type moments, your tariff meltdown situations. Expecting a signal before month end. The pink dotted line is ES and NQ normalized. White is the algo. When it talks, you listen.

NQ

Weekly Expected Range: 25315 - 24007

Last week I said take any longs via NQ and sure enough NQ outperformed ES most of the week because NQ loves being right and it loves an audience. For this week I’m looking for a strong weekly open that is, again, a trap. Upside Monday, downside into Wednesday, then a recovery rally that closes things around 24690. Any print at 25000 and above is a short toward 24315. Anything below 24300 is a dip buy with wide stops because the market will absolutely try to shake you out before it pays you. That’s just the deal.

RTY

Weekly Expected Range: 2600 - 2446

Last week I flagged RTY as a potential range breakdown and it went ahead and did exactly that, no hesitation, very respectful. RTY was the first domino and historically the first domino is also the first to bottom. Small caps have zero chill in either direction and we love them for it. This week I want to see consistent downside from the open into at least Thursday. After that I’m expecting a meaningful bounce to start building. I’m penciling in the bottom somewhere between March 12th and 18th with a solid run into month end. Don’t rush the long. Let RTY come to you.

YM

Weekly Expected Range: 47962 - 46998

YM is the most predictable instrument on this list and yet somehow traders still get surprised by it every single week. Looking for a bull trap at 47755 to open things. Once that level rejects we grind to 47225 and eventually test 46998. Similar story to RTY in terms of timing. Short term bottom should form around the same window, post Thursday upside begins, and March 12th through OPEX is the accumulation zone for longs. Write the dates down somewhere you’ll actually see them.

SPY

Weekly Expected Range: 690.12 - 654.64

Last week’s SPY analysis was accurate enough that I’m a little suspicious of the market. We laid out the path and price walked it like it had the directions saved in its phone. For this week I’m still bearish. Expecting a weekend gap up into the 676 to 682 area, rejection, then a slide toward 668 by Wednesday. Thursday gives you a brief moment of fake hope that you should not act on, and then more selling into Friday close. We are not out of the woods. There are more chances of a volatility event this week than there are of a new ATH. Be patient with dip buys. Be generous with your hedges. Think of hedges like car insurance. You hate paying for it until the one day you really really need it.

SPX

Weekly Expected Range: 6916.65 - 6563.39

SPX has been following the analysis with an almost unsettling level of cooperation. Long may it continue. For this week I want to see a strong open, possibly a strong Monday, with key resistance sitting at 6841. As long as that level holds as resistance I want to see sub 6740 by end of week with a real shot at 6640. The week structure is the same as the rest: upside to open, downside into Wednesday, a small nothing of a Thursday recovery, and another flush to end Friday. This week should be genuinely volatile. Range expansion to the downside is the main scenario.

QQQ

Weekly Expected Range: 617 - 582

Thirty five point wide weekly range. Read that again. Things are going to get chaotic and that is a formal statement not a casual observation. I’m looking for a strong open around 607 to 609 which sets up the bull trap. From there I expect a flush toward 590 into Wednesday, a Thursday rip toward 595 that you should not trust for even a second, and then a final sell into 582 to close the week. Same playbook as everything else. Trap the bulls, grind them down, fake them out Thursday, close ugly. Stay light on your feet.

GC FUTURES

Weekly Expected Range: 5338 - 5024

Gold wants to open soft this week, show some initial weakness, and then quietly grind up toward 5218. Macro structure I’m watching for is weak start into the early part of the week, upside building into Wednesday, then downside to close the week out. The more important thing to flag is that Gold looks like it’s setting up a beautiful long entry around March 16th and 17th. If you’ve been waiting for re-entry, that window is coming into view. Start building your level list.

SI FUTURES

Weekly Expected Range: 90.66 - 78.73

Last week’s bearish Silver call was accurate to the point of making me feel like I should be charging more for this Substack. I’m half joking. For this week I expect continued downside and there is a real possibility we break below the lower edge of the weekly expected range and head toward 74. There are no longs here yet. Silver is not the play right now. Silver is the cautionary tale that you watch from a safe distance while you wait for the real setup.

VX futures

Weekly Expected Range: 28.96 - 23.84

VX closed above the mid of the weekly expected range and that is the market’s way of quietly telling you it is nervous. I expect a mild VX pullback on Monday which lines up perfectly with the equity bull trap scenario, and then a breakout above the weekly expected range as the week builds. Translation: vol dips Monday and then rips into March OPEX. This aligns with equity weakness through mid to late week. Vol is not the enemy this week. It is the signal.

TLT

Weekly Expected Range: 89.54 - 87.38

TLT did exactly what we said it would do last week and most people were still late to it, on both sides, which is honestly an art form at this point. For this week I want to see strength early in the week followed by consistent selling down toward 87.38. That level is interesting because it hits both the lower edge of the weekly expected range and a parallel channel simultaneously, which should light a fire under TLT and launch a new bull move starting around March 16th into the first week of April. Everything is going exactly according to the plan we laid out in February. Buckle up.

ZB Futures:

Weekly Expected Range: 117.07 - 114.3

Same setup as TLT, different packaging. End of week is where you start scaling into longs and holding into March month end. I’m fairly confident we test the highs again soon. The setup is there. The patience requirement is also there.

CL:

Weekly Expected Range: 107.3 - 75.23

CL is in the final stages of a topping process and I’m aware that plenty of respected accounts are calling against shorting it right now. I respectfully disagree. This is forming a rounded top and I believe CL stays elevated into March OPEX before dumping hard toward the 75s. That is going to be one of the better short trades of the quarter and I intend to be in it. The crowd gets it wrong at turning points more often than people admit. This feels like one of those moments.

USO:

Weekly Expected Range: 118.57 - 98.57

Basically the same read as CL. Wait for March OPEX, then start layering into 1 to 2 month out puts. Let time and gravity handle the rest.

NG:

Weekly Expected Range: 3.4 - 2.96

I left last week’s analysis path visible on the chart. Go look at how accurate it was. I’ll wait. For this week it is simple: continuous upside into Friday, every dip is a buy. Natural gas is the cleanest trade on this entire list and we appreciate it for not making our lives difficult.

UNG:

Weekly Expected Range: 13.67 - 11.83

Upside into March OPEX, then a decent pullback toward 11.60 after that. Ride the move up and then step aside when it’s done.BTC:

Weekly Expected Range: 72140 - 64660

Still waiting for a real reason to size up. I’ve been patient and the patience continues. Bulls are not getting relief this week. I want to see a strong Monday open followed by choppy grinding selling all the way into Friday. The next legitimate BTC buy date in my view is somewhere around March 14th and 15th. Until then the falling knife does not need to be caught.

NVDA:

Weekly Expected Range: 186.71 168.93

Downside into Wednesday, a day of confused directionless Thursday trading, then the early stages of a recovery into end of March. The specific setup I’m watching for is a false breakdown below 173.13 that reverses quickly. That would be the ideal long trigger for a move back toward 190. Nothing urgent yet but the structure is starting to show itself.

TSLA:

Weekly Expected Range: 415.54 - 377.92

There is no clean setup on TSLA this week, which is why I’m attaching the longer term view out to mid April. Expecting one to two weeks of going absolutely nowhere, followed by a real and sustained downside move extending into April 8th and 9th. After that bottom TSLA should recover strongly into earnings and that is where the swing long gets built. The trade is coming, it is just not here yet, and TSLA will charge you a premium for trying to be early.

AMD:

Weekly Expected Range: 203.89 - 180.97

Slightly green open, then a real selloff into Wednesday. After Wednesday AMD should start to stabilize and the long thesis begins to form. Still cautious on longs before OPEX though. Let the setup fully cook before you touch it.

AMZN:

Weekly Expected Range: 221.43 - 204.99

Nothing interesting here this week. Expecting choppy downside to grind through most of it. The call options are going to zero and we have made peace with that.

META:

Weekly Expected Range: 667.74 - 621.98

META followed the bullish analysis last week and rejected cleanly off the top of the range as expected. This week I’m looking for upside early, probably into Tuesday, then a choppy slide to close the week. Nothing particularly tradeable here. Observe, protect what you have, and move on.

AAPL:

Weekly Expected Range: 265.4 - 249.52

No change from last week. Downside chop into March OPEX, followed by one of the cleaner upside moves into May. I think AAPL comes out of this downturn as one of the best longs in the whole market. The macro argument is genuinely interesting: AAPL hasn’t blown their balance sheet on AI buildout. Zero CAPEX explosion. They could partner with or acquire Anthropic, plug into best in class AI overnight, and enter the enterprise race with a cost structure that makes every other major tech company look irresponsible by comparison. Technically and fundamentally the setup is building. Dip buyers, circle March OPEX.

GOOG:

Weekly Expected Range: 208.76 - 287.84

GOOG followed the downside call last week right on schedule. This week: trap rally to start Monday, real downside into Wednesday, which I expect marks a near term bottom, then some recovery into end of week. Not a high conviction trade in either direction so size accordingly and don’t force it.

MSFT:

Weekly Expected Range: 421.39 - 396.53

MSFT followed last week’s analysis perfectly and the rally was clean and well behaved, exactly what you’d expect from the most responsible company in tech. For this week I think MSFT puts in a short term top on Monday and grinds lower into Friday. I would not be shorting it though. MSFT is a stock you accumulate on dips, not one you bet against. Let it come to you.

AVGO:

Weekly Expected Range: 343.18 - 321.53

AVGO followed the earnings playbook: initial dump, then a real rip. The post earnings momentum should carry forward this week and I’m looking for a test of 343 before we see rejection back toward 312. Enjoy the upside while it’s there but have a plan ready for the turn.

NFLX:

Weekly Expected Range: 02.84 - 95.2

Getting out of remaining NFLX shares on Monday. High probability we fill the gap within the next two weeks. The credits are rolling. Position closed.

---

Look, weeks like this one are not for people who are underprepared, undercapitalized, or making decisions based on what some guy with a laser eyed avatar posted at 2am. Volatility at this level is where actual wealth transfers happen, and the uncomfortable truth is that it transfers from the impatient to the prepared, from the emotional to the systematic, and from the overleveraged to the people who thought about risk before the move started.

The macro picture is still working itself out. There is more downside to process before any sustained recovery takes hold. The bottom is a process, not a single moment, and trying to be the hero who catches the exact low is one of the most expensive hobbies in trading. Size sensibly. Hedge like you mean it. Respect the fact that the market is not on your timeline and does not care about your average cost.

The traders who come through the other side of weeks like this are the ones who remembered to protect the account first, let the setups come to them, and understood that the long game always beats desperation. This is a marathon through a minefield. Watch your step, keep your stops honest, and do not let one bad trade turn into a bad week turn into a bad month.

Patience is the most profitable skill in this game. It is also the least exciting thing to talk about. But there it is.

And just in case you forgot This is not financial advice. This is financial improv.

Until nexttime,
Wicky.