Weekly Update 03/22/2025
Quarter-End Chaos: Trading Gains & Trader Pains
🌞 Rise & Grind, My Degens!
I trust your weekend is a glorious display of laziness and questionable brunch decisions. Happy Saturday. Last week was downright incredible: I mostly played around with futures and walked away with 450 handles on NQ and 197 handles on ES. Sure, that might not sound like much to the thrill-seekers expecting a Tesla-to-the-moon kind of trade, but I’m pretty pleased with it. As we inch toward the grand finale of this quarter, I’m expecting some serious fireworks. We’re hovering near our bullish turn dates, so I’ll be keeping an eye out for dip-buy opportunities at key price levels.
Before we jump into the real fun, here’s your obligatory reminder that I do not manage any Telegram, Substack chat, or any other websites. All my socials and Discords are listed in the pinned post on this Substack. You’ll probably stumble on a few fake accounts trying to pose as me—seriously, they’re more prolific than doomsday predictions these days—but if it’s really me, you’ll see “tag: author” next to my name. If you don’t, then kindly ignore the scammer and keep scrolling.
That said, let’s dive into the update 👇
⚔️ ES: The Final Countdown
We’re entering the thrilling final phase of this quarter, and things are about to get wild. I plan to start buying dips with some long-term swings into May/June, from now all the way until April 7th. On the chart, you’ll spot the blue line, which is the 21EMA on the daily. We’ve smacked into it twice already, and the daily is looking like a bear flag. However, based on my oh-so-limited knowledge, these fancy bear patterns on daily charts usually end up being about as reliable as weather forecasts—they mostly fail. You’ll hear plenty of doomsayers screaming about death crosses, but I wouldn’t lose any sleep over it. I’m especially eyeing IWM for long plays; the chart is screaming for a rebound, and it’s been taking a beatdown during this slump. There are plenty of charts attached so you can mark your levels in advance. This week, I’m expecting a burst of strength early on, probably until Wednesday, followed by a downturn heading into the weekend. Remember, GS modeled CTAs as buyers next week/month, which lines up nicely with our turn dates.
ES:
NQ:
RTY:
YM:
SPY:
💸 ZB / TLT: Bond, James Bond
We snagged TLT calls last week that returned a cool 110%. For this week, I see TLT sliding early on, then rebounding toward the end of the week. Specifically, I’m anticipating TLT/ZB to drop into Tuesday, then bounce back by Friday. Overall, there’s an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily that looks about as textbook as they come, but I suspect the masses will spot it and start dreaming of yachts and private islands. This pattern took shape from October 2024 through March 2025, so from a statistical viewpoint, the measured target of around 123–125 will likely materialize by early September 2025. Then again, I’m a newcomer in the bonds universe, so treat this with the same caution you would a roommate’s cooking.
🔋 NVDA: Broadway Performer of the Week
Our outlook on NVDA last week was for early strength, a midweek dip, then a rally into the weekend—and it basically played out like a well-rehearsed Broadway show. As you can see on the chart, NVDA keeps getting smacked down by the 21EMA. I’ve been saying since February that this is driven by international markets dumping US equities. This week, I’m predicting more upside for NVDA into Tuesday, then a dip on Wednesday. I suspect some early dip-buyers will jump in, and we might see a bit of recovery on Thursday, but overall, the chart is screaming more downside into the month’s end.
🔥 AMD: Vindication Tastes Sweet
After what felt like an eternity of waiting for AMD to drop below 100 (and getting clowned for it), I went long at 96. I already took my gains of about $10 per share, thank you very much. As you can see on the chart, AMD has reclaimed the descending dashed trend line on the daily. However, for this week, if AMD tests anything in the 108–109.8 region, I’ll be eyeing a short-term short trade. My guess is AMD stays strong into Tuesday, followed by a “sell the rip” scenario heading into the end of the week and quarter.
🚗 TSLA: Entering Ego Territory
I’m rather smug about my TSLA trade. I hopped in when it was at 150, back when only a handful of believers were around, and rode that rocket to 467 before bailing. I still remember about 90% of folks on Discord hoping for 600s, but whenever a trade gets that crowded, I quietly ghost my position. My next TSLA long was at 221, yielding a solid $29 per share gain. This week, I see that momentum continuing into Tuesday. Price-wise, I’d watch for a move up to 258 with a possible push to 267.8 (the daily 21EMA). Past that, I see a swift rejection, which I’ll likely pounce on with short-term 237 puts.
💻 MSFT: The Blueprint Worked
Last week, I mentioned we’d see early strength in Microsoft, followed by a dip that would be a solid buying opportunity in nearly every scenario—and surprise, that’s exactly what happened. If you traded with that weekly bias, you probably pocketed a decent profit. For this week, I’m thinking MSFT stays strong early on, likely at Monday’s open, followed by a drop through Wednesday’s close. I suspect some degens will jump in on that dip, leading to renewed strength on Thursday, which then fizzles into the end of the week/month.
🧠 META: Mr. Consistent
I’ve been hammering on about META longs for quite a while, and this week I went long via shares at 574. That trade already gifted us a sweet $35 per share, and I’ve trimmed down to a quarter position with a stop at 576. This week, I expect META to start Monday strong, followed by some downside chop into Wednesday, which should be scooped back up by the end of the week/month. I’ll keep monitoring this one closely and update if I do anything too exciting.
📦 AMZN: Still Not Catching Knives
I’ve been wanting to long AMZN forever, but not all falling knives are worth grabbing. Your favorite furus on X have probably tried to catch this dip multiple times from 230s down to 190. For me, there’s still no setup on AMZN that justifies parting with my cash. If you crave a little crystal-ball forecasting, I’m eyeing Friday, April 5th as my potential go-long date on AMZN. This week, I see AMZN opening strong on Monday, then weakening by midweek Wednesday. Any bounces from there should be short-lived and likely get sold into the end of the month.
🔍 GOOG: Stuck at the Gate
GOOG has been crawling under 168 for several sessions, and every breakout attempt has ended in utter rejection. Until we reclaim 168 with conviction, a new low looks pretty much inevitable. We do have some GOOG swings for June, and I’m monitoring this ticker like a hawk for further moves. This week, I expect GOOG to show strength into Tuesday, then mostly chop around for the rest of the week.
🍏 AAPL: Market’s Favorite Showoff
If you recall, I’ve been rattling on about AAPL being that one ticker that just keeps pumping, no matter what the market does, and guess what? It’s still flexing its muscles. I’m very bullish on AAPL and am still holding calls. I believe this week we’ll see more strength in AAPL into Thursday, followed by some sideways meandering. All in all, color me bullish on AAPL.
All right, folks, that’s the weekly rundown. I hope you enjoyed the ridiculous amount of charts I threw at you. Don’t get too cozy, though—I only did that because we’re nearing quarter-end. This year has been phenomenal so far, but I’d like to hammer home this reminder: Please don’t full-port into any trade. No trade is a magic wand to rescue you or your portfolio from its current predicament. Make some rules and stick to them. Every time you don’t, you’re not only cultivating a terrible habit but also running from your actual goals.
Everyone loves to call trading “financial freedom,” and I wholeheartedly disagree. Trading is the hardest way to make easy money, so make that your mantra. Your habits will reflect your priorities louder than any words you can muster. There’s a fun term called “KoinoPhobia” (the fear of being average), and guess what? Every human wrestles with it. Only a select few step up and do something to change their lives. So focus on improving daily.
With that, I’ll let you enjoy your weekend and come back recharged for next week. This is not financial advice—it’s more like financial improv, and probably at its finest.
Until next time - Wicky ✌️
Amazing Analysis as always, man. As someone said to me. They think you were a Market Maker in secret identity.
Always looking forward to these new substacks each week. Great stuff as always Wick!