Weekly Update 07/13/25

Where Logic Dies and Liquidity Lies

Welcome back, fellow candle chasers and dopamine-dependent degenerates. Another week is upon us, and with it comes the same old market routine—trap, fakeout, and emotional damage. But fear not, because we’re here to pre-plan the chaos, overanalyze the obvious, and maybe, just maybe, survive the week with our sanity and account balance (barely) intact.

SPY

Weekly expected range: 633.23 - 614.01

SPY is setting up for more downside, and I’d love to see it test the daily EMA around 612.44. Ideal path? Drop into Tuesday, tempt the bulls midweek with a little bounce, and then swiftly crush their dreams by closing near the lows. Picture a polite rug pull with a bow on it.

SPX

Weekly expected range: 6351 - 6168

Nothing fancy here—SPX remains tightly aligned with SPY. The broad market index is likely to follow the same fate: minor headfakes midweek, but the bigger trend should lean bearish. As always, trust the levels, not your feelings.

ES

Weekly expected range: 6386 - 6183

Expect downside on Monday to shake off the weekend optimism, then a possible bounce Tuesday. But don’t get comfortable—sideways action into Thursday sets up for a dip towards the 21EMA at 6185. Basically, the chart equivalent of a passive-aggressive note.

NQ

Weekly expected range: 23331 - 22544

NQ should start the week on the weaker side, ideally forming a bottom around Monday or Tuesday. After that, it’s choppy sideways boredom designed specifically to drain your patience and your capital. As long as 23050 stays as resistance, the door to 21800 is wide open.

TLT

Weekly expected range: 86.99 - 84.59

I’m expecting strength early in the week for TLT—maybe a glimmer of hope for the bond bulls. A small dip Tuesday should find support, setting up a move toward 86 by week’s end. If rates cool off, TLT might actually behave like a grown-up for once.

ZB : T-Bond Futures

Weekly expected range: 144.09 - 111.22

ZB gets a modest pop on Monday, followed by the usual “just kidding” reversal into Tuesday. After that, it should flatten out and build a base, setting up a launch toward the daily 21EMA near 113.87. Just another slow-motion bond market mood swing.

NVDA:

Weekly expected range: 170.84 - 159

NVDA’s likely to sell off early in the week, bounce just long enough to bait some breakout chasers midweek, and then dump again into Friday. If you’re looking for a masterclass in psychological warfare, this stock has you covered.

TSLA:

Weekly expected range: 331.2 - 295.82

We nailed TSLA last week. This time around, expect early week upside, a buyable dip on Tuesday, and a strong move into Thursday. If we dip Friday, look out for a suspiciously bullish Monday open—only to be the setup for another swift betrayal. Classic Tesla.

AMD:

Weekly expected range: 153 - 139

Looking for a test of the 140 level early in the week. If it holds, AMD becomes a solid buy setup toward 164. On the micro timeframe, we should bottom early and then slowly grind higher while everyone argues about semis on Twitter.

AMZN:

Weekly expected range: 217 - 232

AMZN’s going to sleepwalk through the week. Low forms Monday, grind into 228 by Thursday, then a light pullback to the daily 21EMA. Nothing exciting here—just steady enough to make you question your life choices for trading anything else.

META:

Weekly expected range: 743 - 691

Meta has been following our short side plan correctly. For this week. I would like to see a false breakdown of the daily 21 ema level followed by a quick recovery into Wednesday. Overall, I am not intersted in any longs on meta until a test of 680-85 range.

AAPL:

Weekly expected range: 217 - 205

Expect a cute little false breakout above 211.94 on Monday. If it fails to reclaim, that’s your signal for a lovely breakdown toward 208–206. Same old AAPL—enticing you with a move, then ghosting you when it matters.

GOOG:

Weekly expected range: 187 - 174

GOOG’s living its best life inside a perfect parallel channel. Should rally into Tuesday, dump into Thursday, then bounce Friday and possibly continue next Tuesday. It’s like a well-behaved child at a birthday party—rare and unsettling.

MSFT:

Weekly expected range: 515 - 491

Not interested in shorting MSFT just yet. Expecting strength into Thursday, possibly tagging the 516–518 zone. After that, some sideways price action should kick in. The stock’s still acting like the adult in the tech room... for now.

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And that, dear degenerates, wraps up your weekly dose of delusion. Another week, another opportunity to cosplay as a market wizard before getting slapped back to reality by a five-point candle. Whether you get faked out, wicked out, or just mentally wiped out—remember, it’s all part of the circus we call trading. So gear up, throw on your emotional armor, and hit those charts like you’ve never rage-quit before.

Oh, and in case it wasn’t obvious—none of this is financial advice. It’s just financial improv.

Until next time, stay reckless.
—Wicky