Weekly Update 12/6/2025

Good afternoon degenerates, gamblers, investors who pretend they are not gambling, and actual professionals who accidentally stumbled into this circus. Last week unfolded exactly like we mapped out. We said the market wanted to drift upward but would do so in a way designed entirely to destroy premium buyers and leave people staring at their account like they accidentally fat-fingered a YOLO order. Monday and Thursday weakness also behaved like well-trained pets.
Starting January 2026, I will finally stop being lazy and will maintain a full trade blotter with wins, losses, emotional damage and all. Consider it a public scoreboard that keeps me honest and hopefully elevates execution from “pretty good” to “absolute menace”. Our trades from past week:

ES trades
• ES shorts (combined): +40, +8 → +48 points total
• ES longs (combined): +10, +15 → +25 points total

NQ trades
• NQ shorts (combined): +70 points total

SPX trades
• 6810p 12/1: +100%
• 6840p 12/5: +57%
• 6840p 1DTE: +47%
• 6845p 1DTE: +18% (stopped rest)
• 6850c 1DTE: +35%

Stock options
• NVDA 180p 12/5: +75%
• META 750c (swing): +55%
• MSFT 500c Jan 2 2026: +26%
• GLD puts: -100%

Important reminder. Most of our trades are one day to expiration. We rarely do zero days anymore because we have better things to do than sweat a two minute candle like it is the finale of a Netflix show. One day to expiration has paid the bills well enough recently. But one day, maybe one beautiful day when the caffeine hits just right, we go full time zero DTE again.

Alright, enough storytelling. The coming week is where things get spicy.

ES

Weekly expected range: 6953.28 - 6805.72

I am still expecting December’s 2nd week to hand out punishment like a principal with a ruler. The vibe is fully risk-off. On a micro time frame, I want downside into Tuesday to kick off the festivities, then a suspiciously optimistic bounce into Wednesday, which is very likely just bait. Then the market should press down again into Thursday where I expect either a brand-new low or a sweep of Tuesday’s low. When that dirty business is done, buyers should magically reappear into next Monday like nothing happened.

My personal stance this week: shorts are the main entrée and longs are garnish.

Potential Trades:
Main setup: Short the trap bounce
Entry: 6925–6940
Stop: 6960
Targets: 6870 first, 6815 main, 6777 stretch

Backup setup: Short breakdown
Entry on break below 6850
Stop: 6875
Targets: 6820 then 6777

NQ

Weekly expected range: 26102.7 - 24367.3

For NQ I think this week could be a bit tricky to trade. If you step back and look at the broader indices, tech has clearly been the weakest leg recently. My expectation is that NQ pushes down into Tuesday, then puts in a decent squeeze on Wednesday, and then does a back test of the lows again on Thursday. From that point, I expect the upside to continue after Thursday into the following Monday. Any trades on NQ need to be taken with precision, because despite the weakness, there is still room for the index to push higher in the bigger picture.

Potential trades
• Fade Wednesday spike around 26000–26100, stop 26220, targets 25480 then 24950
• If we crack 25250 first, short the retest toward 24780

RTY

Weekly expected range: 2567.5 - 2482.1

RTY followed the path we laid out last week almost perfectly, to the point where the accuracy was basically 100%. For this week, I am looking for some choppy action early in the week, followed by a sharp and swift decline that should last at least into December 12th. Aside from the early week chop, I feel quite confident that short setups here will work out, and I am very likely to take this trade.

Potential trades
• Short 2555–2565, stop 2585, targets 2510 then 2485 then 2460

YM

Weekly expected range: 48279 - 47341

For YM, I am effectively still using the same chart as last week because almost nothing has changed in the overall structure. As you saw, price followed the exact path we had laid out. Going into this week, I expect a fairly good decline in my opinion. I will most likely be taking this trade. There is a small chance of some strength early in the week, but I see that more as a bonus. The real opportunity is in the downside move, and I am expecting a push toward around 46963 by Friday.

Potential trades
• Short 48050–48200, stop 48350, targets 47450 then 46980

SPY

Weekly expected range: 696.08 - 675.3

We are already in hedge positions on SPY, and those hedges are still green. For this week, I do expect a reasonably sized selling move and would like to see price work its way down toward the lower edge of the weekly expected range by the end of the week. Overall I want to be risk off into Tuesday, then look for a bit of upside on Wednesday, which in my opinion will likely be sold into toward the end of the week. The key here is not to size up massively just to chase the fantasy of hitting a huge short and experiencing a mental fireworks show. The broader trend is still up, and this pullback is genuinely healthy in the context of the larger trend.

Potential trades
• Short 690–692, stop 695, targets 682 then 676
• SPY 680p on Wednesday bounce into resistance

SPX

Weekly expected range: 6971 - 6770

For SPX this week, I would like to see a decent move to the downside into Tuesday, possibly tagging that 6812 level yet again, for what feels like the 100000th time. From there, I think we will likely see a bounce on Wednesday, but I expect that bounce to turn into yet another trap, followed by continuation to the downside into the end of the week. I can sit here and make all the predictions I want, but at the end of the day price action will decide who is right. Overall, I think we are due for a proper back test of at least the daily EMA around 6777, and I believe that tag comes sometime this week.

Potential trades
• Short 6845–6865, stop 6890, targets 6812 then 6777
• SPX 6800p / 6775p 1–2DTE for the move into EMA

QQQ

Weekly expected range: 637.5 - 613.46

For this week on QQQ, I am expecting a choppy start to the week that initially looks like an upside breakout. Then reality should step in and bring a solid down move into Tuesday. There is a decent chance of a rally on Wednesday, likely starting from around the 620 level or a bit below, but my expectation is that this bounce gets sold into toward the end of the week. Almost all the major indices are signaling a down move this week, so I would say we are officially risk off for at least this one.

Potential trades
• Short 633–635, stop 638, targets 625 then 618
• Buy Wednesday bounce for scalp then reshort Thursday

GC FUTURES

Weekly expected range: 4293.3 - 4162.1

As I mentioned last week, I am still bearish on GC. We did not take a new trade, and our old GLD puts expired worthless and went straight to options heaven. It is painful, but that is simply the cost of doing business. If you never lose, then winning would not be nearly as satisfying, would it. For this week, I would like to see GLD significantly weaker. There is a small window early in the week, likely during Globex and on Monday, where we may see some choppy action, but my expectation is that GC trades down to at least around 4184 by the end of the week. I might very well do another sacrificial trade to the GC gods via GLD puts. As an Indian and an absolute lover of owning gold, shorting it like this feels like a terrible sin, but so be it.

Potential trades
• Short 4260–4275, stop 4295, targeting 4215 then 4185
• GLD 190p for another angry donation to the GC gods if we bounce

VX Futures

Weekly expected range:

As you can see in the upper right corner of the chart, I pasted last week’s prediction for VX. I quietly want to start doing this across all tickers, but I am also aware that it might turn into a bit too much work. If you want to see last week’s predictions directly on the charts, let me know and I can consider standardizing it. In any case, our analysis from last week, which called for a continued bleed in VX while equities still only saw choppy upside action with premium burn, played out quite well. For this week, I am anticipating a decent spike in VX. On the smaller time frame, I would like to see VX stay elevated into Tuesday, then pull back a bit for minor relief on Wednesday. For what it is worth, the bear in me thinks that any relief will be short lived and that we will see another push higher in VX from Wednesday heading into at least next Monday.

TLT

Weekly expected range: 89.23 - 87.11

TLT closed outside of last week’s expected range. If you have been following along with me for a while, you know that when this happens, it often suggests we are about to see a fake upside move that turns into a trap. My analysis for this week is that we will probably see TLT push up on Monday, but that this move will turn into a bull trap and then we will get a consistent selloff toward the yellow dashed line drawn on the chart by around Thursday. I am quite open to taking this trade if we get that Monday upside move.

Potential trades
• Short 89.60–90.10, stop 90.90, targeting 88.00 then 87.30

ZB Futures:

Weekly expected range: 116.19 - 114.18

For ZB this week, the plan is similar to TLT. I would like to see an upside trap move on Monday, which then sells off consistently into at least Wednesday, followed by another move higher into the end of the week. The idea here is that the early strength is not to be trusted and that the real opportunity is on the short side before we transition into a late week bounce.

Potential trades
• Short 115.45–116.00, stop 116.65, target 114.80 then 114.20
• Consider flipping long on Friday into next week upside

NVDA:

Weekly expected range: 189.49 - 175.33

Last week on NVDA, I showed you in real time how powerful our weekly expected range can be. The moment NVDA stepped outside the upper bound of the expected range, we took weekly expiry NVDA puts and made 75% on those the very same day. For this week, I think NVDA is going to chop around for most of the week with a slight upside bias, but by the end of the week I expect traders to be scratching their heads over both false breakouts and false breakdowns. I believe NVDA will remain choppy at least into Thursday and then start the real decline again toward the 171 level going into the next week.

Potential trades
• Sell 188–189.50 rejection, stop 191.25, targets 181 then 176 then 171
• NVDA 180p 3–5DTE for continuation lower

TSLA:

Weekly expected range: 476.67 - 433.33

Last week we were bullish on TSLA, and I mentioned that apart from some early week weakness, TSLA should be on its way to new highs. That is pretty much how it played out, and we saw a very solid rally in TSLA. For this week, I think TSLA stays relatively strong on Monday, followed by a good selloff on Tuesday. I think we then get another test of the highs on Wednesday, which is basically the market returning to the scene of the crime to give bulls one last chance to exit gracefully. From there, I see a solid down move into around December 19th. I am not completely sure if I am going to take a trade here because anyone who has traded TSLA knows that it can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent. But if we do see convincing signs of weakness, I will be interested in taking some puts.

Potential trades
• Short 472–478, stop 485, targets 456 then 445
• TSLA 450p next-week expiry if weakness confirms

AMD:

Weekly expected range: 228.68 - 207.26

For this week on AMD, I think it will once again be a pretty boring week to be honest. I would like to see a little bit of upside to start the week, which I expect to be sold into on Tuesday. From there, I think we get a decent upside move into Wednesday, followed by choppy downside action into the following Monday. Overall, nothing particularly exciting stands out here.

Potential trades
• Scalp short 224–226, stop 228.50, targets 218 then 214

AMZN:

Weekly expected range: 235.97 - 223.09

For this week on AMZN, I would like to see some strength, probably overnight, followed by consistent selling into at least Thursday. Once AMZN breaks the 228.75 level with confirmation, we should see a swift move toward the lower edge of the weekly expected range. The upside move you see on the chart is meant more for next week and not this one, so do not let it trick you into getting bullish too early.

Potential trades
• Short once 228.75 breaks and retests, targeting 224.50 then 223.00 then 220.50
• AMZN 225p 3–4DTE on breakdown confirmation

META:

Weekly expected range: 692.14 - 654.7

We have trimmed all our call options on META and also reduced our equity position to a 1/4 size, with a hard stop at 620. This trade has worked out quite well in my opinion. For this week, I do see META weakening a little bit, but because it is still in a strong upward momentum phase, I am not looking to short it. I would like to see the downside accelerate into Wednesday, followed by some upside recovery into the end of the week.

Potential trades
• Buy dips 660–665, stop 652, targets 680 then 690
• No shorting META unless it truly sins

AAPL:

Weekly expected range: 284.37 - 273.19

Our analysis from last week on AAPL worked quite nicely. We formed a midweek high and then saw selling kick in afterward. For this week, I think that selling pressure continues. Overall, I would like to see a steady move to the downside into at least the 275 level, which I expect to be hit by midweek, followed by an upside move on Thursday. That bounce should, in my view, be sold into again going into the following Tuesday.

Potential trades
• Short 281–282.50, stop 285, targets 276 then 272
• AAPL 275p next-week continuation

GOOG:

Weekly expected range:

Last week’s analysis on GOOG worked out quite well again. For this week, I would like to see the selloff continue to accelerate as long as price remains within the parallel channel drawn between the red and white lines on the chart. Overall, I want to see the downside accelerate into around Wednesday. After that, we should start to see some recovery into the end of the week, which likely continues into early next week.

Potential trades
• Short 174–175.50, stop 177.50, targets 170.50 then 167.00
• Flip long on mid-week recovery confirmation

MSFT:

Weekly expected range: 493.65 - 472.67

If you zoom out on the MSFT chart, you can see a rather nasty M type formation, which basically validates the view I have had for months that MSFT is a sell the rip type of name right now. For this week, I would like to see a small upside move to start things off, possibly a test of the 485 ish level. From there, I think we will see a solid move down into at least the 472 to 468 range by the end of the week. This is one of the trades I am very interested in taking this week.

Potential trades
• Short 484–486, stop 489, targets 476 then 471
• MSFT 475p / 470p ladder as it progresses lower

AVGO:

Weekly expected range: 408.84 - 371.64

Our analysis from last week on AVGO, which called for a high to form early in the week followed by a dump to the daily EMA, worked extremely well, as you can see on the chart. For this week, I would like to see pretty much the same idea play out again. I want an upside move on Monday, which then sells off strongly into Tuesday. If we hold the low made on Tuesday, then AVGO will likely spend much of the week basing. However, if that low is taken out, then we are probably heading lower into at least the end of the week.

Potential trades
• Short 405–408, stop 412, targets 396 then 388
• If 393–395 holds Tuesday, scalp long toward 404 then 410

NFLX:

Weekly expected range: 103.5 - 96.98

For this week on NFLX, I am seeing a respectable sized selloff setting up as well. Overall, I think we will likely move higher on Monday, with that strength being sold into on Tuesday. Wednesday will probably be the final upside trap, after which I expect a steady and consistent move lower into at least the end of the week.

Potential trades
• Short 102.50–103.50, stop 105.20, targets 98 then 96.80
• NFLX 100p 3–4DTE after the Wednesday trap bounce

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Unlike last week, where a good chunk of the Mag eleven names still had constructive or at least balanced structures, this time around ten out of the eleven Mag eleven names that we track are pointing lower and are showing clearly bearish setups for the coming days. When that many large cap leaders are all lining up on the downside together, it stops being a cute little pullback idea and starts becoming a very real risk off environment.

This week is therefore officially a risk off week in my book. It is the kind of backdrop where preserving capital, taking selective shots, and managing position size carefully matters a lot more than trying to be a hero and calling bottoms. Volatility and pullbacks can absolutely be traded and profited from, but if you let ego and greed drive your sizing, the market will be more than happy to teach expensive lessons. Protect your account, respect your stops, and remember that the goal is to still be around and well capitalized when the next clean trending opportunity shows up.And just incase you forgot: This is not financial advice, this is financial improv.

Until next time,
Wicky